Bitcoin (BTC) is on track to possibly have its longest period of sideways trading during a halving year if it doesn’t show significant upward movement in the next two weeks.
According to a dashboard shared by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, the longest time BTC previously took to rise was 298 days.
In 2020, Bitcoin recorded its highest return index during a halving year at 4.05 points. In contrast, 2016 saw the lowest returns, with the index only reaching 2.26 points. Despite being the second-best performing year, 2012 had a strong start after 298 days, achieving a return index of 2.06 points.
Longest Re-Accumulation Period
This year is notable because Bitcoin reached a new all-time high before the halving for the first time in its 15-year history. Historically, Bitcoin has typically hit new all-time highs about 240 days after a halving event, based on data from the last four cycles. However, this year broke that trend when BTC peaked at $73,737.94 on March 14, speeding up the post-halving bull run by 260 days.
Since the halving, Bitcoin has faced multiple corrections, which have reduced this acceleration period to just 60 days, according to analyst and trader RektCapital. He also noted that Bitcoin is showing signs that the market is trying to shorten this acceleration phase.
Moreover, the current “re-accumulation period”—when Bitcoin trades sideways before a big price jump—is now the longest since 2016. In 2016, it took 161 days after the halving for Bitcoin to start climbing toward its all-time high, while in 2020, it took 164 days. As of October 11, Bitcoin has been trading sideways for 176 days.
Since Bitcoin is already overdue for a breakout from its re-accumulation range between $71,000 and $60,000, RektCapital predicts that this sideways trading could continue for another two months. This would give enough time to reduce the acceleration rate to zero, extending the re-accumulation period to 236 days and making it the longest on record during a halving year.
Author: shadjavist
Humble gentleman who never believes in impossibility
